High Interest Rates Reshape Global Asset Allocation Logic: Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud Explains the Investment Value of US Treasuries, Gold, and BTC

Author: Huobi HTX

As the global interest rate environment changes, the investment logic for traditional and crypto assets is undergoing a new round of adjustment. Facing the coupon yields of US Treasuries, the safe-haven attributes of gold, and the growth potential of Bitcoin, how should investors choose?

On November 12, the Huobi HTX Expert Lecture Hall, themed "Global Asset Repricing: New Wealth Logic in the Era of High Interest Rates," invited Cloud, Chief Analyst at Huobi HTX, to provide an in-depth analysis of the global macro environment, US Treasury yields, gold pricing mechanisms, and the institutionalization trend of BTC. Through four macroeconomic scenarios, the discussion explored the allocation value and risk boundaries of different assets.

Cloud noted that high interest rates are redefining the global benchmark for comparing assets. "There is no one-size-fits-all asset; there are only different roles." In the current market environment, investors need to shift from single-asset return expectations to an investment framework that places greater emphasis on risk-adjusted returns and portfolio allocation.

High Interest Rates Reshape Asset Pricing: Risk Assets Must Answer New Questions

Cloud began by analyzing the changes facing the current global asset pricing system through the lens of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the U.S. fiscal environment.

In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%. At the same time, factors such as inflation resilience, fiscal deficits, and Treasury supply continued to influence market expectations for the future rate path.

Cloud believes that the persistence of a high-rate environment means not only higher funding costs, but also that risk assets must meet a higher yield-comparison threshold. When investors can obtain relatively stable coupon income through instruments such as short-term US Treasuries, holding assets that do not generate cash flows, such as gold and BTC, requires a more compelling risk premium.

This shift is reshaping the relative appeal of different assets. For highly volatile assets such as BTC, the long-term growth narrative and scarcity remain important, but macro liquidity, market risk appetite, and institutional fund flows are becoming key variables affecting price performance.

US Treasuries, Gold, and BTC: Three Assets, Three Pricing Logics

For the three most closely watched asset classes today, Cloud offered an intuitive analogy: "US Treasuries are wages, gold is insurance, and BTC is an option."

First, the core value of US Treasuries lies in coupon income and cash-flow certainty. In a high-rate environment, short-term US Treasuries can provide a relatively stable source of return and are suitable as a defensive allocation tool. While long-term US Treasuries also offer coupon income, their prices are more sensitive to changes in interest rates, and investors must also bear duration risk and price volatility.

Second, the value of gold does not come from generating cash flows, but from credit-risk hedging and asset diversification. In recent years, global central bank gold purchases, reserve structure adjustments, and geopolitical uncertainty have provided long-term demand support for gold.

However, Cloud cautioned that gold does not rise continuously in every market environment. Rising real interest rates and a stronger dollar can still weigh on gold prices. Central bank gold purchases help provide long-term support, but they do not imply that short-term prices must rise. Therefore, gold is more suitable as a risk-hedging tool within a portfolio rather than a pure pursuit of high returns.

For BTC, Cloud focused on the dual impact of institutionalization. As spot ETFs, institutional custody, and investment product ecosystems mature, BTC's links to traditional financial markets have deepened. On the one hand, institutionalization expands BTC's potential investor base; on the other hand, it also makes BTC more susceptible to macro liquidity, equity market volatility, and changes in institutional asset allocation.

Cloud pointed out that while BTC has scarcity and long-term growth potential, scarcity does not equate to downside resilience, and "digital gold" does not mean BTC can serve as a safe haven at all times. In particular, in market environments where risk appetite declines and capital continues to flow out, BTC may still exhibit characteristics of a high-beta risk asset.

Which Assets Are More Attractive Under Four Macro Scenarios?

During the livestream, Cloud further built four macro scenarios—soft landing, stagflation, recession, and inflation resurgence—to compare US Treasuries, gold, and BTC.

In a soft-landing scenario, if inflation gradually falls and economic growth remains resilient, a moderate decline in interest rates may create price recovery opportunities for long-term US Treasuries, while also supporting performance in assets such as gold and BTC.

In a stagflation scenario, slowing economic growth coexists with persistent inflation. Gold's credit-hedging and diversification functions may become more prominent, while long-term bonds and high-valuation risk assets face some pressure.

In a recession scenario, if economic growth slows materially and monetary policy shifts toward easing, long-duration U.S. Treasuries may generate capital gains as yields decline, while gold may benefit from safe-haven demand. For BTC, investors should still monitor changes in market risk appetite and liquidity conditions.

In a scenario of recurring inflation and renewed monetary tightening, short-term U.S. Treasuries may offer greater relative defensive value, while long-term bonds, gold, and BTC could all face valuation pressure to varying degrees.

Cloud emphasized that macro scenarios are not single market forecasts, but analytical tools that help investors identify risks and test portfolio resilience.

From Pursuing Yield to Managing Risk: Patience Is More Essential in a High-Rate Era

At the asset allocation level, Cloud believes investors should not simply view U.S. Treasuries, gold, and BTC as three mutually substitutable options; instead, they should clarify the role of each asset in a portfolio based on their risk tolerance, investment horizon, and liquidity needs. U.S. Treasuries can serve as a relatively stable core position, gold can be used for risk diversification and credit hedging, while BTC can be allocated as an offensive position with higher volatility and potential return elasticity.

For BTC's subsequent trend, Cloud recommends focusing on changes in macro monetary policy, market risk appetite, and institutional fund flows, rather than judging market direction based solely on the size of price pullbacks or the halving cycle. At the end of the livestream, he emphasized: "In a high-rate era, the most expensive thing is not the yield, but patience."

When relatively stable assets can also offer attractive returns, investors need to reassess each time they take on additional risk whether the potential return is sufficient to cover the associated uncertainty.

From the coupon logic of U.S. Treasuries to gold's credit-hedging function and BTC's institutionalization and risk-asset characteristics, this episode of the HTX Expert Lecture not only demonstrated changes in global asset pricing logic, but also provided investors with a more multidimensional macro analysis framework.

As a long-term investor education program of HTX, the Expert Lecture continues to invite industry experts, researchers, and seasoned practitioners to share insights on the global macro economy, digital assets, blockchain technology, and industry development trends, helping users improve market awareness, risk awareness, and independent judgment.

Note: The above are market views shared by the guest during the livestream and do not constitute investment advice.

Source: TechFlow